IDV10210

SECURITE
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
P.O. Box 1636 Melbourne Vic 3001    http://www.bom.gov.au

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA 10
SOUTH-EASTERN AREA 28S/50S, 129E/170E.
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, MELBOURNE
FOR 24 HOURS COMMENCING 1100 UTC 21 NOVEMBER 2008

Please be aware
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum
waves may be up to twice the height.

Part 1  Warnings
Sydney Gale warning issued 210553UTC : Within area bounded by 34S150E  34S154E 
38S154E  38S150E 34S150E.

Melbourne Gale issued 210742UTC: Within areas bounded by 38S141E 38S154E 39S154E
41S147E 47S147E 44S141E 38S141E and 41S147E 38S158E 38S160E 42S160E  44S147E
41S147E.


New Zealand Gale issued 200600UTC over waters east of 160E:   
Trough 33S165E 36S163E 39S162E 44S161E 49S161E 55S164E moving southeast 20kt.
1. Within 420 miles east of trough from 44S161E to 55S164E: Northerly 45kt.
2. Within 240 miles east of trough from 33S165E to 44S161E: Northeast 35kt.
Gale areas moving with trough. 

Part 2  Situation at 0600 UTC
Developing low 990hPa near 45S148E moving northeast and rapidly deepening.
Forecast to be 988hPa and near 
39S150E by 211800UTC and 982hPa near 39S153E by 220600UTC.
Associated cold front 28S144E to 34S150E to 39S150E moving east and forecast
near 28S151E to 34S155E to
38S153E by 220600Z.
Ridge developing southwest of low system to be near 43S129E to 49S144E at
211800UTC and near 42S129E 
to 47S145E by 220600UTC.


Part 3  Forecast
Within 150 nm of ridge.
Southerly quarter winds 15 to 20 knots with  slight to moderate seas. Low to
moderate swell.

Within area affected by deepening low.
South to southwesterly winds 30/40 knots developing from west after 211500UTC in
area east of 141E and north of 45S including Bass Strait. By 220600UTC gales to
spread in area between 141E and 160E and between 37S and 
44S. Seas becoming very rough with heavy swell especially near the low centre. 
Visibility reduced below 2nm in heavy rain near low and east of cold front.
 
Remainder west and north of ridge. 
Southerly winds 10/25 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Low to moderate swell.

Remainder East of Cold Front and west of 160E.
Westerly winds 10/20 knots tending northerly and increasing to 20/30 knots by
220600UTC
as the low deepens. Seas becoming moderate to rough with moderate swell.
Rain areas and squally thunderstorms near front reducing visibility below 3nm. 


East of 160E.
North to northeasterly winds 25/30 knots reaching gale force in New Zealand
warning area. Moderate to rough seas becoming very rough in warning area with
heavy swell. 
Visibility reduced below 3nm in rain areas.


WEATHER MELBOURNE